Baiyun Mountain (600332): The performance is much higher than expected
Event: 19Q1 single season, revenue 180.
5.5 billion (+161.
3%) and net profit of 14.
07 billion (+55.
4%), net profit after deduction of 13.
7.3 billion (+57.
Core views: 1. The performance exceeded expectations, and Wang Laoji contributed the most: excluding the impact of consolidation, the company’s revenue in the first quarter increased by 25.
2% to 86.
5 ppm, with a maximum profit increase of 47 per year.
1% to 16.
80,000 yuan (the reporting end as a whole increased by 55 in ten years.
1% to 17.
700 million), exceeding the market expectations.
This is because the company started to consolidate Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Company in May last year, and consolidated Wang Lao Ji Pharmaceutical Company in the fourth quarter, while Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Company had 18 years of revenue of 35.7 billion and a net profit of 3%.
08 million yuan, one quarter and the table contributed a lot to revenue, but the company’s profit growth increased by 0.
920,000 yuan, limited impact.
At the same time, the company’s gains from changes in fair value of shares held by China Everbright Bank and Zhongyao Holdings increased by 1,253.
Generally speaking, excluding the impact of consolidation and fair value changes, it is expected that the main business of the major health sector and Great Southern Pharmaceutical will increase the company’s first quarter performance by about 400 million.
Among them, the value-added of large health performance is expected to exceed 200 million, with strong performance on a high base, which is the best place to exceed market expectations.
In the first quarter, the revenue and profit of Great Southern Pharmaceutical are within the company’s double-digit development plan.
2. Herbal tea enters the period of profit release. Wang Laoji’s fee-controlling price stabilization situation is good, and both volume and price have risen markedly: Since last year, the company has actively promoted fee-controlling price stabilization activities, reducing the proportion of channel gifts, and increasing prices in disguise.
In the first quarter of last year, the company gave discounts on channel sales. This year, the company reduced re-gifts, and sales were not affected much. We judge that in the first quarter of this year, the income and net profit of Wanglaoji Health Co., Ltd. reached double-digit high growth.Even out of stock phenomenon, volume and price rose.
In the second quarter, channel feedback companies actively promoted the increase in terminal prices, so that channel profitability can be maintained at a better level, and competition products have also significantly increased their prices. The entire herbal tea industry has been formally transferred from the past share to profit release.period.
In our judgment, Wang Laoji’s net profit margin increased to above 2pc this year.
3. The growth of Danan Medicine is stable, and key single products such as Jin Ge continue to exert their strength: We judge that in the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of Danan Medicine was lower than the overall 25.
2% (excluding the consolidation), but at the other two levels, profit growth resumed.
The reason behind this is that the severity of influenza this year is no less than that of early last year, and the growth rate of the heavy product Jin Ge has continued to maintain the previous level, and products such as Zishen Yutai Wan have resumed growth.
4. In the medium and long-term, optimistic that Wang Laoji’s performance flexibility will continue to be released, and reform expectations: Wang Laoji is the most flexible company in the future, which is equivalent to about 20% of other large beverages and a higher net profit margin. There is still a lot of room for improvement.
In terms of medicine, it maintained a steady growth trend.
In addition, the recent national reform policies and related actions remain unchanged. As the only pharmaceutical listing platform of the Guangzhou Municipal Government, the company plans to further marketize the incentive mechanism to accelerate growth as the reform deepens.
5. Profit forecast and estimation analysis: The company’s EPS for 19-21 is expected to be 2.
09 yuan (18 years due to a higher base value due to changes in fair value), corresponding estimates are 20/16/13 times, considering the trend of herbal tea performance release is obvious, maintain the “strongly recommended” rating!
6. Risk warning: 1) Wang Laoji, Jin Ge and other sales are not up to expectations; 2) Intensified competition leads to Wang Laoji’s increase in profit margins; 3) Food and drug safety issues; 4) Pharmaceutical policy 成都桑拿网 risks