Tesla’s cobalt-free ternary lithium battery industry will be affected
For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!
Original title: Finance said | Tesla’s battery is cobalt-free, how happy and sad?
Reporter | Editor Tao Zhixian | Chen Feiya On February 18, according to Reuters, Reuters reported that Tesla, a leader in new energy vehicles, is working with A-share listed company Ningde Times (300750).
(SZ) Discuss the use of cobalt-free batteries at Chinese plants.
If it finally landed, this also means that lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries will enter the Tesla production line for the first time, which is expected to further reduce production costs and increase sales of related models in China.
The secondary market is particularly eye-catching.
As of the close of February 19, BYD (002594.
SZ) and Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074.
SZ) rose by 4.
1% and 2.
93%, Ningde era opened higher and lowered 2.
18%, while Huayou Cobalt (603799.
SH) and Han Rui Cobalt (300618).
SZ) blocked the daily limit.
One stone provoked thousands of waves. For the first time, Tesla chose to embrace lithium iron phosphate batteries, and the dispute over the new energy automobile battery industry’s circuit was renewed.
Why does the industry leader Tesla go against the trend and choose lithium iron phosphate batteries instead of the current mainstream ternary lithium batteries?
Who are the beneficiaries and the injured parties behind this?
The reason for the beneficiary’s competition for Tesla’s choice of the cobalt-free battery route is simple: cost.
New energy vehicle batteries can be divided into two major categories according to different initial materials, ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Except for the baseline material, the two batteries are almost the same in the main materials such as anode material, scale, and tungsten.
The “ternary” of a ternary lithium battery refers to a polymer containing three metal elements: nickel (Ni), cobalt (Co), manganese (Mn) or aluminum (Al).
Therefore ternary batteries contain cobalt, while lithium iron phosphate batteries do not contain cobalt.
Tesla chose the cobalt-free battery route this time, mainly referring to lithium iron phosphate batteries.
From a cost perspective, for new energy electric vehicles, the main cost comes from power lithium batteries, accounting for about 38% of the total cost.
In terms of differentiation, ternary lithium batteries, due to the expensiveness of ternary length materials, especially cobalt, have subdivided materials accounting for about 30% to 40% of the battery cost, while lithium iron phosphate batteries have about 13% of the battery cost.-15%.
At the 2020 Annual Meeting of the Hundred People of Electric Vehicles Forum, Academician Ouyang Minggao said that the 杭州桑拿网 current cost of electricity for lithium iron phosphate battery systems is 600 yuan, compared with about 1,200 yuan for the cost of electricity for ternary lithium batteries.
Take the Tesla Model 3 as an example, its basic version is 50 kWh. If lithium iron phosphate battery is used, the cost is 3 million, while ternary lithium battery is 6 million. The separation is self-evident.
Because of this, in the face of Tesla eager to reduce costs, it is self-evident to choose certain batteries.
At present, BYD, Ningde Times and Guoxuan Hi-Tech mainly produce lithium iron phosphate batteries.
In terms of installed capacity, Ningde Times, BYD and Guoxuan Hi-Tech replaced the top three thrones in the current lithium iron phosphate battery market.
BYD, as the technology leader of lithium iron phosphate battery, has benefited most.
Due to the self-supplied brand, BYD’s technology is the most advanced, especially the “blade battery” developed by it, which has changed the layout of the industry.
By increasing the length of the single cell and increasing the energy density of the battery cells, BYD’s “blade battery” can increase the volume specific energy density by up to 50%, which greatly increases the problem of the maximum soft ribs of lithium iron phosphate battery.
At the same time, by changing technologies such as internal institutions, unit costs can be reduced by 30%.
What is more noteworthy is that BYD’s “blade battery” will be used for the first time in BYD Han launched in March this year. The upgrade application of lithium iron phosphate battery will accelerate the technological innovation of the industry.
Unfortunately, the company’s current power battery production is only self-sufficient, and it is expected that its lithium iron phosphate battery production technology will be opened in the future.
Financial data shows that the company’s H1 auto and related products operating income in 2019 was 339.
82 billion, accounting for 54 of total revenue.
Tesla’s partner Ningde Times is the largest manufacturer of lithium iron phosphate batteries in China.
In 2019, the national power battery installed capacity ranked first, with a market share of more than 50%.
The company’s H1 power battery system sales revenue in 2019 was 16.9 billion, accounting for 83% of the total revenue.
But Musk did not choose BYD or Ningde Times as partners, presumably for its own reasons.
First of all, BYD batteries have only been supplied to BYD’s own new energy vehicles for a long time, not externally.
In essence, unlike the Ningde era, which only provided power battery supply, BYD has its own new energy vehicle. Tesla and BYD may face each other in the future.
Guoxuan Hi-Tech ranked third in terms of national power battery installed capacity in 2019 (the first two sides were Ningde Times and BYD). Among them, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries ranked second. The company’s 2019 H1 power lithium battery sales revenue was 32.
79 billion, accounting for 90% of total revenue.
In addition to the benefits of lithium iron phosphate battery manufacturers, Ganfeng Lithium (002460.
SZ), as a leading domestic lithium compound producer, will also benefit directly.
The company’s sales revenue of H1 lithium battery products in 20192.
67 billion, accounting for 9% of total revenue.
As of February 18, Ganfeng Lithium, BYD, Guoxuan High-tech and Ningde Times have been increasing to varying degrees.
It is obvious that the four stocks rose 72 during the year.
33% and 47.
2%, the increase has been overdraft performance.
Ternary lithium batteries will be affected by Tesla without cobalt, and the biggest damage is naturally the ternary lithium battery industry chain, especially companies related to cobalt materials.
From the performance point of view, cobalt, a precious metal material, accounts for 10% of its demand for power batteries, and its impact on demand is limited.
At present, about 90% of cobalt is mainly used in high-temperature totals, and in hard alloy and mobile phone batteries, power batteries account for about 10%.
This can be confirmed from the proportion of new energy products of listed companies in cobalt production and processing.
Huayou Cobalt focuses on the smelting of cobalt-copper nonferrous metals and the deep processing of new cobalt products.
The company’s H1 ternary body sales revenue in 20195.
52 billion, accounting for 6 of the total sales.
07%, with limited impact.
Hanrui Co., Ltd.’s principal business is the mining, production and sales of cobalt and copper ore.
The company reorganized to announce the proportion of specific products, but the sales revenue of H1 cobalt products in 20197.
16 billion, accounting for 77% of its main business.
Grammy (002340) for the disposal and recycling of ternary used batteries in the main army.
The company’s semi-annual report for 2019 disclosed that its new energy battery materials business revenue was 41.
27 billion, accounting for 66% of total revenue.
Dangsheng Technology (300073.
SZ) R & D, production and sales of anode materials for small-scale lithium batteries and power batteries, such as lithium cobaltate.
The company’s 2019 H1 lithium battery primary materials and other materials operating income12.
79 billion, accounting for 95% of total revenue.
The biggest hit to the ternary lithium battery industry chain is not performance, and there are other expectations.
With the boom of the new energy battery industry chain this year, various companies in the industry chain have attracted much attention from investors, and the company is expected to rise rapidly in the short term.
As of February 18, Huayou Cobalt, Hanrui Cobalt, GEM, and Dangsheng Technology increased by 32 each year.
77%, 31% and 27.
95%, far exceeding the gains of various indexes.
Excessive expectations bring more bubbles to listed companies. As external expectations cool down, they will definitely bring about substantial changes.
Tesla is cobalt-free, which is a historic choice, to suppress the market of mid-to-low-end fuel vehicles.
Although Tesla is currently working with the Ningde era, it will take time to test how BYD will respond to this strong opponent.