European and American stock markets leaked: Can the A-shares hold up as the Fed cuts interest rates?
European and American stock markets plummeted again, how to operate A shares?
Come to Sina University of Finance and listen to the opening column of the Trading Day Financial Morning Post.
Original title: Burst!
Iranian vice president confirmed, multiple senior officials have been infected, prayers cancelled!
European and American stock markets have gone wild, the Dow has fallen more than a thousand points!
New coronaviruses continue to rag around the world. According to reports, Iran ‘s vice president has tested positive for new coronaviruses. In the evening, the turmoil in the capital market intensified and European and American stock markets continued to plummet.
Among them, Tesla once plummeted 14%, Boeing once plummeted nearly 5%, and Apple once fell more than 6%.
Among Chinese stocks, Alibaba and Baidu all fell more than 3%.
However, in the final release, the above-mentioned declines have been narrowed.
The anti-virus concept continued to rise against the trend, of which Alpha Pro Tech surged nearly 70%.
Iranian Vice President Tests Positive for New Coronavirus The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), which has just been rescued by Al Arabiya, reported that Iran ‘s Vice President for Women and Family Affairs, Masoumeh EbtekarThe new coronavirus test was positive.
On February 27, Mujtaba ZulNour, chairman of the National Security and Foreign Affairs Committee of the Iranian Congress, posted a video on his personal social media Twitter, where he looked at the camera and said he was susceptible to the new crown virus.The test is positive and has been isolated.
Two days ago, on February 25, Iranian Deputy Minister of Health Iraj Harirchi, who had been responsible for reporting the epidemic on behalf of the Iranian government, and Mouhmoud Sadeghi, a member of the Iranian parliament, socialized before and afterThe media posted that they had been infected with the new crown virus.
As of the 27th, Iran had confirmed a total of 245 cases of neocoronavirus infection, of which 26 died and 25 were cured and discharged.
According to Iran ‘s national television station, Iran has cancelled Friday prayers in 23 cities due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
The head of the WHO’s emergency health plan, Ryan, said that the severity of the new crown pneumonia outbreak that Iran first detected may be deeper than we can imagine.
The Dow fell by 1000 points intraday. With the global epidemic continuing to spread, European and American stock markets continued to plunge tonight.
Among them, the British FTSE 100 index plummeted nearly 4%, the French CAC400 index plummeted 4%, and the German DAX index fell 3.
US stocks also continued to fall tonight. Among them, the Dow once plunged more than 3%, and the Nasdaq fell 3.
At 4%, the S & P 500 also fell by almost 3%.
In the final release, the decline in US stocks narrowed.
In the case of U.S. stocks plunging, Tesla plunged nearly 14% today, Apple once fell nearly 5%, and Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Boeing and other technology, aviation stocks also fell.
However, the concept stocks of US stocks continued to rise against the trend. Moderna rose more than 20%, Novavac rose about 19%, Alpha Pro Tech rose more than 50%, and the stock closed up nearly 24% yesterday.
U.S. Treasury yields have generally fallen, and one-year Treasury yields have fallen by 12 basis points, a decline of 9.
87%, 2 years down 9 basis points, down 7.
98%, 10-year government bond yields fell by 5 basis points, a decrease of 4.
Among them, the yield of 2-year government bonds and the yield of 3-year government bonds are upside down.
In addition, ICE cloth oil, NYMEX crude oil also plummeted.
Affected by the epidemic, global risk aversion is heating up, and comex gold rose nearly 1% today.
The Fed’s interest rate cut is expected to rise to the International Monetary Fund said today that due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the International Monetary Fund may lower its global economic growth forecast in the next global economic outlook.
The continued decline of the market and the impact of the epidemic on global economic growth have significantly increased the expectations of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
”The recent deterioration of the overseas epidemic and the decline in the U.S. service industry PMI in February have increased market tensions overall.
At present, the US federal funds rate market has basically taken into account the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut once in July this year, and a 50 basis point rate cut twice.
“CICC’s macroeconomic research said in the report.
According to the CME “Fed Watch”, the pricing of US short-term interest rate futures suggests that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates after the meeting on interest rate decisions next month is 63%. Standard Chartered strategists said they now expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year as the new coronavirus threatens the US and global economy.
The bank ‘s North American macro policy leader Steven England said in a report to clients that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut interest rates twice in April and June to cap the federal funds rate target range.Decrease by 1.
25% instead of staying at 1.
”Our prediction is that the outbreak will disrupt global supply chains and tourism, so FOMC is concerned that economic activity is causing trends below levels,” Englander said.
Can A shares hold up?
This week, peripheral stock markets have plummeted, and A shares have performed relatively strongly. So, can A shares continue their strong performance tomorrow?
CICC Strategy stated that the epidemic situation and China’s policy response 武汉夜生活网 are the core factors of the recent performance of the Chinese market.
The epidemic situation in China basically meets the judgment under the baseline standard (the epidemic situation gradually changed around mid-February, and the epidemic situation in most parts of the country except Hubei was controlled and gradually resumed at the end of February).Beginning to affect the global market, which may add some new uncertainty to our judgment of market prospects and structural performance.
According to the strategy of CICC, comprehensively, we believe that the market’s short-term growth has increased, but below the benchmark interest rate (China’s epidemic has been gradually controlled, and there has not been a large-scale tilt overseas).The outlook remains positive.
The Air Force and Haitong Securities also said that in the past, the turbulence of overseas stock markets 北京夜网 would inevitably affect A shares, and this overseas slump also caused short-term adjustment of A shares.
Haitong Securities believes that in the medium and long term, the three logics of the A-share bull market have not wavered, that is, the cycle of bull and bear cycles, corporate profits bottomed out, and major assets are biased toward the stock market.
We believe that the A-share profit W-shaped bottom, the net profit of listed companies will still rise after two quarters each year, and will gradually reach 10% -12% in 2020, more than 8% in 19 years, the bull market will gradually enter the logic of three waves of risingNo change, the three waves need to wait for the epidemic to be under control, and economic activity is fully restored.
Central: To prevent the export or import of epidemic situation during the cross-border movement of people. The Central Leadership Group Meeting on New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemics meeting on or around February 27, promoted the establishment and improvement of the national emergency response mechanism for coordinating emergency communication with personnel, and formulated moreVehicles, ports, entry and exit of high-risk personnel, etc. are linked to each other and corresponding epidemic prevention and control standards, and coordinated adoption of common prevention and control measures to effectively prevent the export or import of epidemics during cross-border movement of personnel.
An increase of 505 cases a day in South Korea According to reports, as of 9 pm local time on the 27th, including the 705 infected people who have been diagnosed on the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship, the number of confirmed cases of Japanese new crown pneumonia has increased to 918.
In order to prevent the further spread of new crown pneumonia in Japan, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe demanded that Japan ‘s primary schools, junior high schools and high schools be temporarily closed from next Monday (March 2).
On February 27, the disease status of the new crown in South Korea continued to escalate. The South Korean Central Epidemic Prevention Policy Department reported a total of 505 cases, the highest in a single day. At present, a total of 1766 confirmed cases and 13 deaths have been reported.
On February 26, the South Korean Central Clinical Committee of New Infectious Diseases notified the outbreak of the Department of Psychiatry of Da Nam Hospital. A total of 99 patients were confirmed in this department, and 7 of the 13 dead in Korea came from here.
Experts say that infection is related to the environment of the psychiatric department. In order to prevent short-sightedness of patients, the doors and windows of the psychiatric department are closed all year round.
The hospital implements centralized management for 24 hours, and patients need to share toilets and bathrooms.
Foreign Ministry official Zhao Lijian also said today that we have been closely monitoring the development of the new crown pneumonia epidemic situation in South Korea and Japan.
China is deeply grateful to the Korean and Japanese governments and people for their support and assistance to China in fighting the epidemic, and we are sympathetic to the current epidemic situation.
China, Japan and South Korea are friendly neighbors with a strip of water, and they are a community of destiny in the face of the epidemic.
China will not be absent from South Korea and Japan’s efforts to fight the epidemic.
We are willing to work with the parties to reach consensus on joint prevention, prevention, and control, and work together to strengthen control measures at ports, strengthen inspection and quarantine, and reduce unnecessary cross-border travel.
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